Possible scenario
Damage Stays Contained
35% Chance
Ken Paxton survives the new reporting with limited erosion among Republican primary voters and conservative donors. The Texas GOP and national Republican groups conclude that reopening internal warfare after the Cornyn runoff would be more damaging than defending him.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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