Possible scenario
Limited Judicial Remedy
32% Chance
The court finds enough evidence of problematic platform conduct to impose corrective measures but not enough to invalidate Bolsonaro's candidacy. This is a middle-path outcome: judicial intervention rises, but the election calendar and ballot remain largely intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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