Possible scenario
Candidacy Annulled
20% Chance
The TSE accepts Lula's argument that Meta-related interference materially tainted Bolsonaro's candidacy or campaign conditions. This would be a major legal and political escalation given Bolsonaro's prior ban from office and coup-plot sentence, increasing uncertainty over ballot substitution and the runoff timetable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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