Possible scenario
Annulment Petition Rejected
38% Chance
Brazil's Superior Electoral Court rejects Lula's bid to annul Bolsonaro's candidacy, finding that the Meta-related allegations do not meet the legal threshold to remove a runoff candidate. The court may still require preservation of evidence and post-election review, but the runoff proceeds with Bolsonaro on the ballot.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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