Possible scenario
Sanctions Force Contraction
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington keeps Operation Economic Outcast in place and treats the rial collapse as evidence the campaign is working. Iran’s economy contracts further, but Tehran avoids a full military response while trying to preserve regime control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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