Possible scenario
Negotiations Reopen
25% Chance
The rial collapse gives Tehran an incentive to test a limited diplomatic off-ramp, especially through Oman or Qatar. Washington could preserve sanctions leverage while exploring narrow steps on nuclear monitoring, prisoners, or humanitarian trade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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