Possible scenario
Repeal Advances Quickly
45% Chance
EU central banks and finance ministries converge on a fast repeal of the 60% reserve requirement, removing the main MiCA obstacle for Tether's continued EU access. The outcome is likely because regulators appear to prefer keeping euro-area crypto liquidity onshore rather than forcing USDT activity into less regulated venues.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+3.0%
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.