Possible scenario
Spending Plan Survives
20% Chance
The European Parliament, Commission, and Southern and Eastern member states successfully resist the deepest cuts. The headline budget remains close to the original proposal, with savings found through timing changes, own-resource assumptions, and limited reprioritization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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