Possible scenario
Settlement Talks Stall
20% Chance
Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington cannot reconcile territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions sequencing. The economic-project linkage is seen as insufficient to overcome core war aims, producing a mild risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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