Possible scenario
Settlement Framework Advances
35% Chance
Washington and Moscow keep economic projects conditional on a Ukraine settlement, but the linkage becomes a bargaining tool rather than a spoiler. Kyiv and European governments remain cautious, yet markets read the process as a modest de-escalation signal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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