Possible scenario
Bargaining Drags On
30% Chance
Economic projects remain attached to a settlement, but neither side converts the linkage into an agreed timetable. This is the base-case slow negotiation path: enough contact to avoid escalation, not enough to reprice sanctions or energy supply materially.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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