Possible scenario
Controls Look Effective
20% Chance
The density shortfall strengthens the view in Washington, The Hague, and Tokyo that export controls are slowing China's access to leading-edge performance. The market read-through is less about Huawei alone and more about whether the U.S. and allies further restrict advanced packaging tools, metrology, and EDA software.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- AMAT-0.7%
- LRCX-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.