Possible scenario
Operational Strain Emerges
20% Chance
Departures begin to affect execution at the IRS and Treasury offices responsible for tax guidance, sanctions, or borrowing operations. The most plausible impact is administrative delay rather than a fiscal crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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