Possible scenario
Sustained Refinery Campaign
40% Chance
Ukraine keeps targeting Russian refining, storage, and pipeline logistics after the Moscow-region depot strike. The most likely path is continued disruption to Russia's domestic fuel balance without an immediate direct NATO-Russia escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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