Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow responds to the strike on a major oil depot with a larger retaliation cycle against Ukrainian power, gas, railway, and drone-production infrastructure. This would raise near-term geopolitical risk and modestly tighten European energy risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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