Possible scenario
Energy Market Repricing
20% Chance
Oil and refined-product markets begin to price the risk that Russia's refining losses will affect diesel, gasoline, and naphtha availability beyond Russia. The key uncertainty is whether the shock stays in Russian domestic fuel markets or spills into global product trade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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