Possible scenario
Escalating Armed Closure
35% Chance
Iran continues mining and IRGC small-boat or missile attacks despite U.S. escorts, pushing insurers and tanker operators to suspend more voyages. The U.S. and partners expand naval operations, but commercial flows fall further before mine-clearing and suppression efforts can restore capacity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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