Possible scenario
Brokered De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press Iran and the U.S. into a narrow maritime pause focused on energy shipments rather than a full political settlement. Tehran uses the disruption as leverage, while Washington accepts a temporary mechanism to reduce energy-market stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.