Possible scenario
Outage Extends
30% Chance
Repairs take longer than initial market expectations, forcing Southern California to rely more heavily on inventories and incoming cargoes. The state's boutique fuel specifications limit immediate replacement supply, keeping wholesale gasoline prices elevated.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- PBF+2.0%
- CVX-1.4%
- VLO+1.3%
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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