Possible scenario
Rollback Effort Fails
18% Chance
A blocking coalition in the Council and Parliament prevents a meaningful legal change to the 2035 ban. France and Germany secure political language on competitiveness, but automakers do not receive the regulatory certainty they sought for combustion-engine extensions.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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