Possible scenario
Shallow Industrial Slump
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the eurozone manufacturing sector remains weak but does not enter a crisis. Germany’s auto and chemicals weakness continues to weigh on the bloc, while services and lower inflation prevent a broader recession.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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