Possible scenario
Early Stabilization Appears
30% Chance
The industrial production miss proves backward-looking, with forward indicators such as orders, PMIs and export surveys stabilizing. Lower energy costs and easing financial conditions support a mild manufacturing rebound into late 2026 and early 2027.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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