Possible scenario
F-150 Disruption Worsens
27% Chance
The supplier problem lasts longer than management initially signals, creating a larger hit to F-150 volumes. Because the F-Series is Ford’s most important profit pool, investors price in lower fourth-quarter earnings and weaker cash generation.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Tickers
- F-8.5%
- GMM.USD-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.