Possible scenario
Limited Humanitarian Openings
18% Chance
The U.S. does not lift the embargo but permits narrow humanitarian or people-to-people measures to reduce international pressure. Any change is administratively limited and reversible, creating modest upside for travel and consumer channels tied to Cuba.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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