Possible scenario
Geopolitical Risk Dominates
20% Chance
The Iran war and uncertainty around Gulf energy flows may overwhelm the calming effect of higher US LNG exports. In this path, buyers treat US supply growth as necessary but insufficient insurance against a broader regional disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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