Possible scenario
Atlantic LNG Balances
38% Chance
The most likely path is that record US LNG exports help Europe bridge part of the winter supply gap created by low inventories, Qatar's North Field East delay, and Middle East risk. US terminals run hard, but the relief is partial because Europe still competes with Asia for flexible cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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