Possible scenario
Decision Delayed
18% Chance
The partners do not reach FID in October and push the decision into 2027. The most likely reasons are cost inflation, partner capital allocation, uncertainty over Asian contract prices, Canadian emissions rules and infrastructure timing.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- TRP-0.9%
- TOU-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.