Possible scenario
IEA Pushback
20% Chance
Key IEA governments argue that emergency reserves are being depleted too quickly after the earlier 325 million-barrel release and the G7 diesel-focused action. A rejection or delay would signal that the policy buffer is thinning, leaving prices more exposed to Hormuz disruptions and OPEC+ restraint.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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