Possible scenario
Full IEA Release
45% Chance
The IEA agrees to the US request and authorizes an additional 100 million barrels, likely structured as a coordinated draw from OECD emergency stocks. Given the recent 325 million-barrel IEA release and 100 million-barrel G7 action, the market treats this as meaningful but not decisive because inventories are already depleted and Hormuz risks remain.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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