Possible scenario
Fitzpatrick Holds Seat
45% Chance
Manchin's endorsement helps Brian Fitzpatrick reinforce his brand as a bipartisan Republican in a swing Pennsylvania district. The most likely outcome is that Fitzpatrick keeps enough independents, moderates, and ticket-splitting Democrats to retain the seat.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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