Possible scenario
Endorsement Backfires
18% Chance
Manchin's endorsement creates friction on Fitzpatrick's right flank, where some Republican activists view the former Democrat-turned-independent as insufficiently aligned with the GOP. This does not make defeat certain, but it raises the risk of lower conservative enthusiasm.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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