Possible scenario
Temporary Waiver Suspension
15% Chance
A more disruptive but less likely outcome is a temporary U.S. suspension or partial freeze of Israel's Visa Waiver privileges. This would require DHS to conclude that the Flydubai failures exposed systemic compliance problems rather than isolated screening lapses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- OSIS+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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