Possible scenario
Probation Without Suspension
30% Chance
Washington formally finds gaps in Israel's Visa Waiver compliance but stops short of suspending the program. This would let the Biden administration or its successor show enforcement while giving Israel a defined cure period to repair data-sharing and aviation-security procedures.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- OSIS+0.6%
- LDOS+0.3%
- UAL-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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