Compliance Plan Accepted

The most likely outcome is that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and State Department keep Israel in the Visa Waiver Program while demanding corrective steps. Washington has strong strategic reasons to avoid an abrupt suspension, and Israel can plausibly fix passenger-manifest vetting, API/PNR data-sharing, and airport screening procedures quickly.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.