Possible scenario
Regional Disruption Worsens
20% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that smoke spreads more heavily into Singapore and southern Malaysia. This would broaden disruption from schools into aviation, tourism, ports and outdoor industrial work, while still remaining a regional environmental shock rather than a global macro crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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