Possible scenario
Managed Haze Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of severe but regionally contained haze, with Malaysia extending school closures and health advisories while Indonesia expands firefighting. Economic effects stay concentrated in education, local travel, hospitals and outdoor work rather than becoming a broader market event.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.