Possible scenario
Managed Status Quo
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington avoids binding global AI controls while maintaining selective export licensing to China. Trump keeps the U.S.-China AI channel open, prioritizing commercial leverage and bilateral flexibility over UN- or EU-led standards.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.8%
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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