Possible scenario
Fragmented Controls
20% Chance
Trump’s rejection of global controls may push allies to build a parallel standards regime without Washington or Beijing. That would increase compliance costs and policy fragmentation for AI firms, while leaving export controls uneven across jurisdictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Business Services +0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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