Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
25% Chance
External mediators push both sides toward de-escalation because neither Pakistan nor the Taliban can easily sustain a prolonged interstate war. The core dispute over TTP safe havens remains unresolved, but both sides accept mechanisms to reduce civilian casualties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.