Possible scenario
Major Military Escalation
20% Chance
A high-casualty TTP attack inside Pakistan prompts Islamabad to intensify operations against targets it says are sheltered by the Taliban. The risk of urban strikes, Taliban reprisals, and broader mobilization rises materially.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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