Possible scenario
Contained Border War
45% Chance
Pakistan and the Taliban government continue tit-for-tat strikes along the Durand Line, but both avoid a full ground campaign. Civilian casualties keep the conflict in UN Security Council discussions, while Islamabad frames attacks as counter-TTP operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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