Possible scenario
Brokered Port Access
38% Chance
Ethiopia pursues Red Sea access through a negotiated commercial or security arrangement rather than a direct military move. Abiy’s statement keeps pressure on neighbors, but the high cost of war and the role of Turkey, the AU, UAE and Gulf financiers make a bargain more likely than immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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