Possible scenario
Talarico Breakthrough
27% Chance
Talarico’s earlier fundraising advantage proves durable, and Paxton’s new $18M quarter is not enough to reset the race. Democrats nationalize the contest around Paxton’s impeachment history and ethics controversies while investing heavily in turnout.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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