Possible scenario
Paxton Holds Edge
48% Chance
Paxton’s doubled Q3 haul, Trump endorsement, and $20M ad buy allow him to neutralize James Talarico’s fundraising surge. Texas’s Republican lean and GOP consolidation keep Paxton favored despite Democratic enthusiasm.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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