Possible scenario
OpenAI Counterattack Works
18% Chance
OpenAI responds with product upgrades, bundling through Microsoft, or stronger agent performance that narrows the gap with Claude Opus 5.5. Anthropic remains a major enterprise vendor, but its 34% leadership proves temporary.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.