Possible scenario
Wider Reform Crisis
25% Chance
The ITV investigation broadens beyond one candidate and reinforces a narrative that Reform UK has systemic vetting failures. Farage faces questions about what he knew and when, while rivals use the scandal to challenge Reform's credibility as a party of government.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.