Possible scenario
Reform Contains Scandal
40% Chance
Nigel Farage and Reform UK move quickly to limit the damage by suspending or removing the candidate while arguing the party has improved vetting. The story remains damaging but does not fundamentally change Reform's support among voters already motivated by immigration and anti-establishment politics.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.