Possible scenario
Mediated Humanitarian Pause
27% Chance
Rashad al-Alimi’s order creates military pressure that Oman and the UN use to broker a narrow pause around Taiz. The Houthis may accept limited aid access to avoid overextension while preserving their battlefield position.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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