Possible scenario
Limited Army Gains
38% Chance
Forces aligned with the Presidential Leadership Council push back Houthi units near the Taiz-Aden junction but do not fully secure the route. The most likely near-term result is a contested corridor, because both sides have incentives to claim success while avoiding a decisive urban battle inside Taiz.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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