Possible scenario
Houthi Siege Tightens
22% Chance
The Houthis repel the initial army push and reinforce the newly seized junction, deepening the siege of Taiz. This outcome is plausible because the group already controls key terrain and can move forces from nearby Ibb and al-Hawban.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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